A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
